# Did DART, the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (2022) come true?

Largely, yes. DART, the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (2022) has a P(n) of 95% on Nearfi's P(n) Board, our estimate of the chance its future arrives within 20 years. Of its 5 tracked predictions, 1 have arrived and 1 are arriving. Its central premise, 'A spacecraft can measurably change the motion of an asteroid by hitting it (the kinetic impactor)', has arrived. The next prediction is estimated to arrive around 2028.

Source: https://nearfi.co/predictions/dart-the-double-asteroid-redirection-test

## Predictions

- **ARRIVED** (weight 5/5): A spacecraft can measurably change the motion of an asteroid by hitting it (the kinetic impactor). Arrived 2022.
- **NEAR** (weight 3/5): The outcome of a deflection can be predicted well enough in advance to plan one against a real threat. Estimated 2028 (range 2027–2031).
- **NEAR** (weight 4/5): Most asteroids big enough to devastate a region are found years or decades before they could hit. Estimated 2035 (range 2032–2040).
- **NEAR** (weight 3/5): A real deflection mission can be designed, built and launched within the warning time a newly found asteroid would give. Estimated 2038 (range 2032–2050).
- **ARRIVING** (weight 3/5): An agreed international process exists to decide on, fund and launch a deflection before an impact. Estimated 2032 (range 2028–2045).