Did Contagion come true?
Contagion is the most fully arrived future in our archive: every one of its central predictions happened within a decade, mostly in 2020 and 2021. Where it missed was the public. Its virus was far deadlier than COVID-19, its misinformation came from one blogger rather than an ecosystem, and the real fight was over trust in vaccines rather than access to them.
Read the review · 7.8/10 →
How this P(n) was calculated
Each prediction is weighted 1–5 by how pivotal it is to the story: 5 is the core premise, 1 is background detail. Arrived scores 1, arriving 0.5, everything else 0. P(n) is the weighted points divided by the total weight.
| Claim | Prediction · why this weight | Weight | Status | Value | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON-1 | A new virus linked to bats emerges in East Asia and becomes a global pandemic within months. Core premise: the bat-linked pandemic is the film's story. |
5 | ARRIVED | 1 | 5 |
| CON-2 | A vaccine against the new virus is developed, approved and being injected within a year of the outbreak. Major: the race to develop and ration a vaccine is a main plotline. |
4 | ARRIVED | 1 | 4 |
| CON-3 | Online influencers promote a bogus cure, and demand for it surges during the pandemic. Supporting: Krumwiede's forsythia cure is a recurring subplot about misinformation. |
3 | ARRIVED | 1 | 3 |
| CON-4 | Proof of vaccination is required to get back into public places. Texture: the vaccination wristband appears near the end as aftermath detail. |
2 | ARRIVED | 1 | 2 |
| Total | 14 | 14 |
P(n) = 14 ÷ 14 = 100% · unweighted average 100%
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CON-1
A new virus linked to bats emerges in East Asia and becomes a global pandemic within months.
Weight 5/5 · Core premise: the bat-linked pandemic is the film's story.
SARS-CoV-2, a coronavirus with close bat relatives, was first identified in Wuhan and declared a pandemic by the WHO on 11 March 2020. How it reached people is still disputed: a 2024 analysis of market samples identified animals that could have passed it on, while the FBI said in 2023 it judged a laboratory leak most likely. The pandemic itself arrived exactly as the film imagined; the clean bat-to-pig-to-chef chain did not. 123
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CON-2
A vaccine against the new virus is developed, approved and being injected within a year of the outbreak.
Weight 4/5 · Major: the race to develop and ration a vaccine is a main plotline.
The UK regulator approved the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine on 2 December 2020, and mass vaccination began six days later, under a year after the virus was identified. The film's birthday lottery did not happen; countries prioritised by age and risk instead. 45
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CON-3
Online influencers promote a bogus cure, and demand for it surges during the pandemic.
Weight 3/5 · Supporting: Krumwiede's forsythia cure is a recurring subplot about misinformation.
Ivermectin, an antiparasitic drug, was promoted online as a COVID-19 miracle cure on the strength of studies that independent scientists found riddled with errors or signs of fabrication, and the hype drove large numbers of people to take it. It was also properly trialled, which is the film's other half: real science testing the claim while the rumour outran it. The scale was larger and more decentralised than one blogger. 67
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CON-4
Proof of vaccination is required to get back into public places.
Weight 2/5 · Texture: the vaccination wristband appears near the end as aftermath detail.
The EU Digital COVID Certificate applied from 1 July 2021 until the regulation expired on 30 June 2023. Parts of the UK required a Covid pass for entry to nightclubs and large events before scrapping it, and England shelved its first nightclub scheme in September 2021 after opposition from venues and MPs. Arrived, contested, then retired. 8910
- FOR Archived: WHO Timeline - COVID-19. World Health Organization, 2020-04-27. On 11 March 2020 the WHO assessed that COVID-19 could be characterised as a pandemic.
- FOR COVID pandemic started in Wuhan market animals after all, suggests latest study. Nature, 2024-09-20. Reanalysis of market samples identifies several animal species that could have passed the virus to people.
- AGAINST FBI chief Christopher Wray says China lab leak most likely. BBC News, 2023-03-01. The FBI's view challenges the film's natural spillover story, which remains unresolved.
- FOR UK medicines regulator gives approval for first UK COVID-19 vaccine. GOV.UK (MHRA), 2020-12-02. The MHRA authorises the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine.
- FOR Covid-19 vaccine: First person receives Pfizer jab in UK. BBC News, 2020-12-08. Mass vaccination begins in the UK.
- FOR Ivermectin: How false science created a Covid 'miracle' drug. BBC News, 2021-10-06. Independent scientists found serious errors or signs of fabrication in the trials behind the hype, which still drove large numbers of people to use the drug.
- CONTEXT Covid: Ivermectin to be studied as possible treatment in UK. BBC News, 2021-06-22. The drug was added to a large UK trial, showing the scientific route the film's CDC takes.
- FOR EU Digital COVID Certificate. European Commission. The certificate regulation applied from 1 July 2021 to 30 June 2023.
- FOR Covid passports: Where do I still need to use one?. BBC News, 2021-01-22. Explains the UK Covid pass schemes that required proof of vaccination or a negative test at nightclubs and large events, and their withdrawal.
- AGAINST England vaccine passport plans ditched, Sajid Javid says. BBC News, 2021-09-12. England dropped planned passes for nightclubs and large events.
Ledger updated 1 Nov 2026. All works on the P(n) Board · Method