How close did they get?
We break every work we review into specific, testable predictions, check each one against the evidence, and estimate when the rest will arrive. Readings change as the world catches up.
P(n): how much of a work's imagined future is now. Each work's percentage is the share of its predictions that have already arrived.
Claims. Each work is split into four to six concrete predictions: things the story treats as ordinary that a reasonable person could check.
Estimates. For anything not yet here we give a median year and an 80% range. Wide ranges are honest ranges.
Evidence. Every claim cites sources for and against: papers, regulators, company filings and reporting. We link everything so you can check our working.
P(n). Arrived counts one, arriving counts a half, and each prediction is weighted 1–5 by how pivotal it is to the story. A film is judged mainly on whether its central premise came true, not its background details. It measures how much of a work's future is already here, not how good the work is; that's what the review score is for. Every ledger shows its calculation.
Weights. 5 core premise (the story doesn't exist without it) · 4 major · 3 supporting · 2 texture (noticeable world-building) · 1 background. In The Truman Show, the 24/7 broadcast of one man's life is a 5; the focused rain is a 2.
- ARRIVED Exists and is in real use.
- ARRIVING Early or partial versions exist.
- NEAR Credible work underway; plausible within about 15 years.
- FAR No credible path within about 15 years.
- DIVERGED History went another way.
100%Did Contagion come true?
87%Did The Truman Show come true?
82%Did Snow Crash come true?
80%Did Stand on Zanzibar come true?
79%Did Her come true?
75%Did Little Brother come true?
70%Did After Yang come true?
68%Did Black Mirror: Be Right Back come true?
68%Did Upgrade come true?
67%Did Station Eleven come true?
67%Did Strange Days come true?
67%Did The Circle come true?
64%Did Black Mirror: Nosedive come true?
64%Did Klara and the Sun come true?
63%Did The Water Knife come true?
62%Did Years and Years come true?
61%Did Black Mirror: The Entire History of You come true?
61%Did Ex Machina come true?
61%Did Super Sad True Love Story come true?
60%Did Humans come true?
60%Did Neuromancer come true?
57%Did Gattaca come true?
57%Did Robot & Frank come true?
57%Did Upload come true?
54%Did Severance come true?
47%Did Sleep Dealer come true?
Did The Agents, Reviewed come true?
44%Did Minority Report come true?
43%Did Black Mirror: Hang the DJ come true?
42%Did Devs come true?
38%Did Children of Men come true?
32%Did Never Let Me Go come true?
30%Did Pantheon come true?
23%Did The Ministry for the Future come true?
Did Red Mars come true?
11%