Did Red Mars come true?
Red Mars is more prescient about who would run a Mars settlement than about how it would be built. No one has left for Mars and the planet cannot be warmed with the carbon dioxide it has, but the legal vacuum and the dominance of private money in the story are already here.
Read the review · 8.4/10 →How this P(n) was calculated
Each prediction is weighted 1–5 by how pivotal it is to the story: 5 is the core premise, 1 is background detail. Arrived scores 1, arriving 0.5, everything else 0. P(n) is the weighted points divided by the total weight.
| Claim | Prediction · why this weight | Weight | Status | Value | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REDMARS-1 | A crew of about a hundred people travels to Mars and starts a permanent settlement. Core premise: the First Hundred and their settlement are the whole story. |
5 | NEAR | 0 | 0 |
| REDMARS-2 | Mars is terraformed: its atmosphere is thickened and warmed until liquid water is stable on the surface. Core premise: the Red versus Green argument over terraforming drives the politics of the whole trilogy. |
5 | FAR | 0 | 0 |
| REDMARS-3 | Private and transnational interests, not governments, drive settlement while the law lags behind. Major: the corporations and the UN body they outgrow supply the conflict that leads to the 2061 revolution. |
4 | ARRIVING | 0.5 | 2 |
| REDMARS-4 | A space elevator carries cargo from the surface to orbit. Texture: it moves goods and becomes a target in the revolution, but the plot does not depend on it. |
2 | FAR | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 16 | 2 |
P(n) = 2 ÷ 16 = 12% · unweighted average 12%
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REDMARS-1
A crew of about a hundred people travels to Mars and starts a permanent settlement.
Weight 5/5 · Core premise: the First Hundred and their settlement are the whole story.
No crewed Mars mission has launched, and the book's 2026 date has passed. SpaceX, the company that most loudly planned an early landing, said in February 2026 that it was shifting priority to the Moon and would begin a Mars city in about five to seven years. Travel windows open only about every 26 months. A hundred settlers is a later step than a first landing, so the median sits well after the first crews. 12
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REDMARS-2
Mars is terraformed: its atmosphere is thickened and warmed until liquid water is stable on the surface.
Weight 5/5 · Core premise: the Red versus Green argument over terraforming drives the politics of the whole trilogy.
A 2018 NASA-sponsored study by Jakosky and Edwards found that Mars does not retain enough accessible carbon dioxide to thicken and warm the atmosphere, and that mobilising what exists is beyond present technology. The atmosphere is under one per cent of Earth's pressure. A different route would be needed, and none has been shown. 34
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REDMARS-3
Private and transnational interests, not governments, drive settlement while the law lags behind.
Weight 4/5 · Major: the corporations and the UN body they outgrow supply the conflict that leads to the 2061 revolution.
Private companies lead the most visible plans for Mars. The Outer Space Treaty bars national sovereignty claims and makes states responsible for their private actors' activities. The Artemis Accords add that extracting space resources is not inherently national appropriation, but they are non-binding principles, and the extent of the settlement law that Mars would need is unresolved. 567
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REDMARS-4
A space elevator carries cargo from the surface to orbit.
Weight 2/5 · Texture: it moves goods and becomes a target in the revolution, but the plot does not depend on it.
Obayashi Corporation has a concept for an Earth elevator by 2050, with a 96,000 km carbon nanotube cable, and bases its feasibility case on an assumed cable strength. A 2006 analysis argued that defects in nanotube ropes cast doubt on the strength needed. No cable of useful length exists, and Mars has no such system. 89
- AGAINST Musk clips his Mars settlement ambition, aims for the moon instead. CNN, 2026-02-08. Musk says SpaceX has shifted priority to a Moon city, with Mars work to begin in about five to seven years.
- FOR Musk says 50-50 chance of sending uncrewed Starship to Mars by late 2026. Al Jazeera, 2025-05-30. The earlier plan for an uncrewed Starship to Mars in the 2026 window, since withdrawn, shows how serious private plans are.
- AGAINST Mars terraforming not possible using present-day technology. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, via ScienceDaily, 2018-07-30. A NASA-sponsored study concludes Mars lacks enough accessible CO2 to warm it, and that the atmosphere is under 1% of Earth's pressure.
- AGAINST Can We Terraform Mars to Make It Earth-Like? Not Anytime Soon, Study Suggests. Space.com, 2018-07-30. Independent coverage of the same study.
- FOR Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space (Articles II and VI). UN Office for Outer Space Affairs, 1967-01-27. Article II bars national appropriation; Article VI makes states responsible for private activity and requires authorisation and supervision.
- FOR The Artemis Accords (Section 10, Space Resources). NASA, 2020-10-13. Signatories affirm that extracting space resources does not inherently constitute national appropriation.
- CONTEXT Musk clips his Mars settlement ambition, aims for the moon instead. CNN, 2026-02-08. A private company's stated priorities, not an agency's plan, set the pace of Mars settlement.
- FOR The Space Elevator Construction Concept. Obayashi Corporation, 2013-05-20. A company concept for a 96,000 km nanotube cable elevator by 2050.
- AGAINST On the Strength of the Carbon Nanotube-Based Space Elevator Cable: From Nano- to Mega-Mechanics. arXiv, 2006-01-30. Argues that defects reduce nanotube strength enough to put the elevator's feasibility in doubt.
Ledger updated 2 Nov 2026. All works on the P(n) Board · Method